Incidence rate: EV Firesafe recorded ~27 verified electric bus fires globally among ~250,000 e‑buses (2010–2024), implying a per-bus fire probability ≈ 0.01% (≈1 in 10,000) Risk Reduction Rev+15EV Fire Safe+15Reddit+15.
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Global Estimate (2010–2024)
Given the above data modalities:
For consolidated regions like US and parts of Europe, roughly 1,000 to 2,500 ICE-bus fires per year are plausible from older NFPA and vehicle‑fleet‑reporting sources.
Extending that to a 15‑year span gives a cumulative total between approximately 15,000 to 37,500 reported bus fires.
This excludes many private, unreported, regional, or light‑rail/coach vs city‑bus distinctions, so the real number could be anywhere 30,000–50,000 worldwide.